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 Peak Oil

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DavidChel
Constraint Violating Yak Guru

474 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 09:02:35
Anybody else a subscriber to the peak oil theory and getting more and more uneasy about the state of the US and World economies over time? Gas just hit $3.80/gallon here for regular unleaded. The guy on the TV this morning predicted $12-$15 by next summer, but I think even that is alarmist.

What do you folks think?

spirit1
Cybernetic Yak Master

11752 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 09:19:12
well depends on what you think as peak oil. oil won't run out just yet.
however it is going to be more and more expensive to get it out.
alberta tar sands are the proof of this.
frankly USA had it way too easy with low oil prices for too long. and people will have to change their mindset about big cars.
and for me it seems simply insane that you don't have interstate rail system...
not to mention US way to make biodiesel from corn is simply crazy... thanfuly EU is already backing down a bit on corn biodiesel
but hell...why change your ways when you can simply go invade a country and "save" it from a "cruel dictator" just to get it's oil.

the biggest problem for the states at the moment is that basicaly 3 things came at it at once. housing, credit, and oil.
and if you ask me around october we'll be looking at a $200 barrel and a global recession.
however the high price of oil is currently held by demands of china and india and also by oil speculators...
it will be interesting to see if brazil finds that largest oil field in history or if that's just a hope.

bottom line you guys better get used to $6/gallon in the very near future.

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RickD
Slow But Sure Yak Herding Master

3608 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 10:07:59
Considering the new find in Brazil (unofficial as of yet), I doubt we will run out anytime soon.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7348111.stm

As for $3.80 a gallon, I can only wish I paid this. In the UK, the price is currently £1.12ish a litre (4.5 of them in a gallon) for unleaded and £1.24ish a litre for diesel (muggins here got a diesel a few years back when it was cheaper than unleaded)! The incompetent bunch of idiots running our country decided to put tax on diesel up.
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spirit1
Cybernetic Yak Master

11752 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 10:16:04
if i'm not mistaken the US gallon is 3.7 litres.
the problem with the brazil find is that it has to be developed which is at least 2-5 years...

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RickD
Slow But Sure Yak Herding Master

3608 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 10:22:50
Yeah, and in the meantime I do 120 miles a day just for work.
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spirit1
Cybernetic Yak Master

11752 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 10:52:07
i hope you have a high mileage per gallone car

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X002548
Not Just a Number

15586 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 11:43:18
I take the train

And the nonsense about "taking over Iraq" for the oil just doesn't wash

If it did, we'd be rolling in oil right now



Brett

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spirit1
Cybernetic Yak Master

11752 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 11:49:49
well in retrospect it seems that was the only reason. since anything else also doesn't cut it.
rolling in oil also doesn't work because the oil is still property of iraq and you can't just take it.
the only reason is to destabilize the region thus weaking it.
after all the best way to conquer a land is to make it's people fight amongst them selves.

face it... US companies make gazillions there. and for what... promise of future oil...
the thing that your government screwed up was to think that all of the people of iraq would welcome them with open hands
which of course is a joke since in the middle east the US has as much respect as a nickel.


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blindman
Master Smack Fu Yak Hacker

2365 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 13:55:39
Sadly, the actual reasons are even more nonsensical.

e4 d5 xd5 Nf6
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tkizer
Almighty SQL Goddess

38200 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 13:58:50
quote:
Originally posted by DavidChel

Gas just hit $3.80/gallon here for regular unleaded.



I wish I could find a gas station that had 87 fuel for 3.80/gallon in San Diego, CA. Sadly, southern CA is much higher than the rest of the nation.

Tara Kizer
Microsoft MVP for Windows Server System - SQL Server
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sodeep
Master Smack Fu Yak Hacker

7174 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 14:36:53
It's already $4.30 in NY city.
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tosscrosby
Aged Yak Warrior

676 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 16:18:01
Up to $4.75 in parts of Chicago. We have the highest in the nation (as of yesterday evening's news, who knows about today!).

Terry
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X002548
Not Just a Number

15586 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-22 : 18:09:00
I find it funny...I wanted a Suburban years ago....but I wanted it so I could drive on the beach and go fishing

I have seen no reason why everyone wants an SUV



Brett

8-)

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DavidChel
Constraint Violating Yak Guru

474 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-23 : 11:05:05
I drive a 2005 Scion Xa which is non-hybrid and gets an actual 36mpg. I've tested it.

But the actual driving isn't the problem. The problem is that nothing is made locally anymore. The prices of everything are skyrocketing and will continue to do so.

I know that most of the people here have higher salaries than average, but what is going to happen when the middle class can no longer afford to go to work? What is going to happen when it is no longer profitable for companies to rape the 3rd world and transport cheap goods over here?

I think that we are heading for very, very bad times and because our whole economy functions based upon the available of cheap energy, I don't see any way that this is going to improve.

What do you folks think? Am I a "tinfoil hat" wearer or do you agree?
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spirit1
Cybernetic Yak Master

11752 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-23 : 11:29:11
well that's the problem of globalization. its basis is cheap transportation.
without it countries will again have to become more self sustainable.
unfortunately USA and EU will be hit hard by this since all of us moved from an industrial to a service based economy.


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jezemine
Master Smack Fu Yak Hacker

2886 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-23 : 12:40:21
I biked to work today and got soaked. didn't have to pay for gas though.

fuel was a bowl of raisin bran - which costs a little more lately, but nothing like the skyrocketing gas prices!




elsasoft.org
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blindman
Master Smack Fu Yak Hacker

2365 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-23 : 13:39:44
You won't be laughing when raisin bran hits $10 per bowl.

e4 d5 xd5 Nf6
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cat_jesus
Aged Yak Warrior

547 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-23 : 13:41:16
quote:
Originally posted by DavidChel

I drive a 2005 Scion Xa which is non-hybrid and gets an actual 36mpg. I've tested it.

But the actual driving isn't the problem. The problem is that nothing is made locally anymore. The prices of everything are skyrocketing and will continue to do so.




But the president of the USA said just the other day that there's nothing to worry about. He said that the economy is robust and growing and that it's only experiencing a little softening.

Also, George Will said he doesn't know anyone who is having a tough time economically, so everything must be fine, right?



An infinite universe is the ultimate cartesian product.
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tkizer
Almighty SQL Goddess

38200 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-23 : 13:50:17
The president of the USA is wrong. I voted for him as I am Republican and vote strictly Republican due to a couple of ideals, but I'll be glad when he leaves office even if Obama (or Hillary) gets elected. Anything is better than Bush at this point even if their ideals do not align with mine.

I don't see how low-income families can survive in this economy. How can they afford to drive to work at this point? They can't afford the fuel efficient cars, even a 10-year-old Geo Metro is costing several thousand dollars right now (saw an article about this just yesterday).

Tara Kizer
Microsoft MVP for Windows Server System - SQL Server
http://weblogs.sqlteam.com/tarad/

Database maintenance routines:
http://weblogs.sqlteam.com/tarad/archive/2004/07/02/1705.aspx
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jezemine
Master Smack Fu Yak Hacker

2886 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-23 : 13:59:42
quote:
Originally posted by blindman

You won't be laughing when raisin bran hits $10 per bowl.

e4 d5 xd5 Nf6



right. next they will be making ethanol from grapes causing the raisin price to bubble.

no wait. ethanol from grapes - isn't that wine?


elsasoft.org
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DavidChel
Constraint Violating Yak Guru

474 Posts

Posted - 2008-05-23 : 14:06:17
quote:
Originally posted by tkizer

The president of the USA is wrong. I voted for him as I am Republican and vote strictly Republican due to a couple of ideals, but I'll be glad when he leaves office even if Obama (or Hillary) gets elected. Anything is better than Bush at this point even if their ideals do not align with mine.

I don't see how low-income families can survive in this economy. How can they afford to drive to work at this point? They can't afford the fuel efficient cars, even a 10-year-old Geo Metro is costing several thousand dollars right now (saw an article about this just yesterday).

Tara Kizer
Microsoft MVP for Windows Server System - SQL Server
http://weblogs.sqlteam.com/tarad/

Database maintenance routines:
http://weblogs.sqlteam.com/tarad/archive/2004/07/02/1705.aspx



I read a similar article where people are taking old Metro's out of junk yards, refurbishing them, and making a killing selling them on Ebay.

Jezemine, how much did the milk cost you? It's $5 a gallon here for the regular, not organic stuff. One of the reasons is the ethanol fiasco cooked up by the agriculture lobbies.

According to the reports I've read, they spend more in energy (oil) than they actually get out of it in ethanol energy.

Also, if you buy E85 fuel, you're a fool because it is much less energy dense than gasoline so you're getting less mpg.

This is a huuuuuuge problem that is not getting the reaction and correction that it deserves.
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